Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.124430 0.139777 0.156335 0.175540 0.197215 0.220936 0.248889
2025-12-07 0.093380 0.112148 0.133836 0.160787 0.193439 0.231792 0.280369
2025-12-14 0.073629 0.093915 0.118852 0.151848 0.194496 0.247946 0.320311
2025-12-21 0.059329 0.080013 0.106942 0.144721 0.196606 0.265727 0.365411
2025-12-28 0.050632 0.071959 0.101269 0.144730 0.207966 0.297273 0.434131
2026-01-04 0.042560 0.063504 0.093774 0.141049 0.213665 0.322026 0.497922
2026-01-11 0.036743 0.057398 0.088705 0.140065 0.223135 0.353798 0.577963
2026-01-18 0.032413 0.052877 0.085324 0.141101 0.235875 0.392659 0.676359
2026-01-25 0.027384 0.046484 0.078043 0.134685 0.235415 0.410040 0.742117
2026-02-01 0.023090 0.040674 0.070874 0.127314 0.232085 0.421929 0.800372
2026-02-08 0.020002 0.036502 0.065906 0.123033 0.233545 0.442525 0.878585
2026-02-15 0.017362 0.032758 0.061164 0.118416 0.233594 0.460433 0.954880
2026-02-22 0.015808 0.030881 0.059723 0.120139 0.246804 0.507207 1.101730
2026-03-01 0.013759 0.027753 0.055449 0.115570 0.246543 0.526796 1.194978
2026-03-08 0.012231 0.025455 0.052496 0.113284 0.250781 0.556805 1.318333
2026-03-15 0.010919 0.023413 0.049782 0.111083 0.254868 0.587324 1.449770
2026-03-22 0.010156 0.022437 0.049181 0.113487 0.269919 0.645766 1.662645
2026-03-29 0.009218 0.020939 0.047224 0.112451 0.276650 0.685676 1.837186
2026-04-05 0.008505 0.019851 0.046041 0.113079 0.287631 0.738271 2.057965
2026-04-12 0.007948 0.019054 0.045421 0.115005 0.302314 0.803275 2.328839
2026-04-19 0.007086 0.017398 0.042511 0.110625 0.299567 0.821293 2.467469
2026-04-26 0.006271 0.015749 0.039389 0.105206 0.293060 0.827822 2.573369
2026-05-03 0.005666 0.014553 0.037257 0.102131 0.292658 0.851842 2.740455